| 和预报员谈数值预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛纪善.和预报员谈数值预报[J].气象,2007,33(8):3-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛纪善 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 致谢：作者感谢国家＂十五＂科技攻关项目＂中国气象数值预报系统科技创新研究＂各个课题提供的最新进展,并感谢徐国强博士等提供的图表. |
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| 摘 要： | 用尽可能非专业的词语,向预报员介绍数值预报的成就、问题与应用。在简单回顾数值预报发展历史的基础上,重点分析了近十几年来数值预报的主要技术进步与有待解决的问题,对比了数值预报与主观经验预报的各自优势与不足,提出了优势互补对于提高业务预报的重要性。还分析了数值预报的技术进步对于数值预报产品释用的影响,以及预报员参与数值预报发展的可能性与必要性。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报 预报员 优势互补 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/5/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-05-102007-06-12 |
Weather Forecaster and Numerical Weather Prediction |
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| Xue Jishan.Weather Forecaster and Numerical Weather Prediction[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(8):3-11. |
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| Authors: | Xue Jishan |
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| Institution: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The status and applications of numerical weather predictions are introduced to weather forecasters in operational posts in a way of non-specialist terminology.Following a historical review with the stress on the achievements and unsolved issues in the latest decade,the merits and shortcomings of forecasts by numerical models and experiences-based methodologies are compared.The combination of the superiorities of two kinds of approaches is emphasized.The impacts of technical developments of numerical weather prediction on the interpretation and application of model outputs,and the possible roles the forecaster may play in the further development of NWP are also discussed. |
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| Keywords: | numerical weather prediction forecaster |
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