天气动力学组合因子在MOS降水预报中的应用

利用我国的数值产品ＨＬＡＦＳ格点场资料，结合内蒙古地区降水系统的天气动力学演变特征，构造出能反映降水系统的天气动力学发展机制的结构特征因子，采用ＭＯＳ方法建立预报方程。用较短的样本资料建立ＭＯＳ预报方程，提高了ＭＯＳ预报方程的预报能力和适应性。试验结果表明，该ＭＯＳ预报方程计算稳定并具有很好的预报能力和效果，易于业务化。

The Application of Composite Factors of Synoptic Dynamics to the MOS Precipitation Forecasting Method

predictive equation was built by using MOS method,after making up the structural characteristic factors which can reflect the mechanism of the synoptic dynamic development of precipitation systems. During research,the HLAFS grid point data of the numerical forecast products by our country is used to formulate the synoptic dynamic development characteristic in Inner Monglia region. The experiment results show that this MOS equation can improve the prediction accuracy,be put into the routine meteorological operation easily and thereby have a good application and popularization value