数值预报产品效果检验及在降水预报中的应用

通过对目前天气预报业务中使用的Ｔ１０６、ＨＬＡＦＳ和日本模式三种数值预报产品对烟台市降水预报效果的检验、对比和分析，发现：数值预报产品在暴雨和一般降水预报中有一定指导作用；暴雨和一般降水预报效果都是日本模式好于ＨＬＡＦＳ，ＨＬＡＦＳ好于Ｔ１０６；三种预报产品对低压或倒槽型的降水预报准确率普遍较高；当三种预报产品均预报有降水时，其出现降水的准确率为７５．９％。

The Effective Test of the Numerical Prediction Products and the Application to Rainfall Prediction

Through the test,contrast and analysis among the three numerical prediction products of T106 HLAFS and Japanese model used in present work on the effect of Yantai rainfall prediction,it is found that the numerical prediction products have some directive functions in the rainstorm and rainfall prediction,and Japanese model is better than HLAFS.Yet,HLAFS is better than T106 on the effect of the rainstorm and general rainfall prediction.The accurate rate of rainfall prediction of the three prediction products to the low pressure and upside down trough is commonly higher,and the accuracy of rainfall is 75 9% when the three prediction products all predict that there will be rainfall.