近39年海南岛极端天气事件频率变化

利用1966--2004年海南岛大风、暴雨、雷暴、冰雹、高温、低温、霜冻、雾等极端天气事件的年发生日数资料，采用最小二乘法、Mann—KendaⅡ法及Modet小波等方法诊断分析其变化特征。结果指出：大风、雷暴和雾日呈显著减少趋势，并分别于1992年、1984／1985年、1983／1984年之交发生突变；高温、暴雨趋频及低温、冰雹、霜冻频数总体趋少变化不显著，其中，冰雹、霜冻基本处于少变的稳定态势。高温、雷暴存在阶段性中高频周期，其他极端天气则存在长期和阶段性中低频周期；冰雹日数的变化周期趋于变短，其余极端天气则有周期变长趋势。初步说明海南极端天气事件频率变化与气候变暖有一定的内在关系。

Change of Extreme Weather Events in Hainan Island for Last 39 Years

Based on the data of annual gale days, rainstorm, thunderstorm, hail, high/low temperature, fog, and frost in the Hainan Island from 1966 to 2004, the variation characters are diagnosed using the least squares method, Mann-Kendall method and Morlet Wavelet method. The results show that annual gale days, and days for fog and thunderstorm weather decreased notably, especially in 1992, 1984- 1985 and 1983 - 1984. Annual high temperature day, and days of rainstorm weather increased, while days of low temperature, hail, frost decreased slightly. Annual hail and frost days are stable. High temperature and thunderstorm weather days are in the high and middle frequency stage, while the other extreme weather appears in low, middle and long-range frequency period besides stage periods. The variational period of annual hail days turns to short. And the periods of annual days of the other extreme events prolonged. It indicates that the extreme weather events in the Hainan Island have relationship with the global warming.