| 影响华东地区热带气旋频数诊断预测方法研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 蒋乐贻.影响华东地区热带气旋频数诊断预测方法研究[J].气象,2001,27(4):25-29. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 蒋乐贻 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 上海台风研究所, |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在建立诊断影响华东地区热带气旋年频数异常概念模型的基础上，采用逐步回归方法构成用前期各月资料诊断预测华东地区热带年频数的客观模式,历史拟合率较高，且进行了试，证明有预测能力。
|
| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 诊断预测模式 逐步回归法 年频数 |
A Study on Diagnostic Prediction Model of Frequency of Tropical Cyclone Affecting East China and Shanghai |
| |
| Jiang Leyi.A Study on Diagnostic Prediction Model of Frequency of Tropical Cyclone Affecting East China and Shanghai[J].Meteorological Monthly,2001,27(4):25-29. |
| |
| Authors: | Jiang Leyi |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on diagnostic conceptual model of anomalous yearly frequency of tropical cyclone affecting East China, objective prediction models of yearly frequency of tropical cyclone affecting East China and Shanghai were constructed by using stepwise regression analysis. The prediction experiments were carried out and the results proved that the prediction models have predictive capacity. |
| |
| Keywords: | tropical cyclone diagnostic prediction model stepwise regression |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象》下载免费的PDF全文 |
