| 基于BP神经网络的地质灾害细网格预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡敏,黄艳,朱宵峰,沈锦栋,金培,吴惠娟.基于BP神经网络的地质灾害细网格预报模型[J].气象,2009,35(7):95-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡敏 黄艳 朱宵峰 沈锦栋 金培 吴惠娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省金华市气象局,321000 |
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| 摘 要： | 地质灾害成因复杂,其中以气象因素、地质地貌因素引发的地质灾害最为常见.以金华地区为例,通过对金华市地质地貌条件及其对地质灾害点的调查,将全区划分为4个地质灾害隐患风险等级的网格区域.在此基础上利用金华中尺度气象资料,采用BP神经网络模型,建立地质灾害细网格预报模型,对该模型进行模拟和预报试验.结果表明,合理的隐患风险等级分区能使预报模型更符合科学规律,而采用分布较细的中尺度资料作为预报因子能进一步提高预报精度.模型的预报结果达到一定的可信度,为防灾减灾工作提供了科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | BP神经网络 地质灾害 降水指数 隐患风险等级 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/7/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/11/10 0:00:00 |
Fine-Grid Forecast Model of Geological Hazards Based on BP Neutral Network |
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| Cai Min,Huang Yan,Zhu Xiaofeng,Shen Jindong,Jin Pei and Wu Huijuan.Fine-Grid Forecast Model of Geological Hazards Based on BP Neutral Network[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(7):95-100. |
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| Authors: | Cai Min Huang Yan Zhu Xiaofeng Shen Jindong Jin Pei and Wu Huijuan |
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| Institution: | Jinhua Meteorological Office of Zhejiang Province;Jinhua 321000 |
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| Abstract: | The causes of geological hazards are rather complex due to many influence factors, but they are mainly triggered by the change of weather conditions and affected by geological and geomorphic conditions. Taking Jinhua area as an example, on the basis of investigation about the geological and geomorphic conditions especially in the disaster zone, four grid-regions with different geological hazards hidden-risk level are plotted out. The fine-grid forecast model of geological hazards is tested to be reliable, w... |
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| Keywords: | BP neutral network geological hazards precipitation index hidden-risk level |
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