| 基于位置误差的分布制作热带气旋路径袭击概率预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 高拴柱,张守峰,钱传海,端义宏,王海平.基于位置误差的分布制作热带气旋路径袭击概率预报[J].气象,2009,35(9):38-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高拴柱 张守峰 钱传海 端义宏 王海平 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了探讨热带气旋路径预报的不确定性,利用2004-2007年4年中央气象台综合预报的误差分布状况,建立热带气旋路径综合预报的统计集合模型,制作热带气旋路径的袭击概率预报及产品,并为警报发布工作中有关登陆地段的预报提供有意义的参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 袭击概率 综合预报 误差 热带气旋 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/12/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 4/3/2009 12:00:00 AM |
A Track-Error-Based Forecast Method of Tropical Cyclone Track and Striking Probability |
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| Gao Shuanzhu,Zhang Shoufeng,Qian Chuanhai,Duan Yihong and Wang Haiping.A Track-Error-Based Forecast Method of Tropical Cyclone Track and Striking Probability[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(9):38-43. |
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| Authors: | Gao Shuanzhu Zhang Shoufeng Qian Chuanhai Duan Yihong and Wang Haiping |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center;Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | To examine the uncertainties of tropical cyclone track forecast,track errors of the comprehensive forecast of National Meteorological Center during 2004-2007 are used to build a statistical model to produce tropical cyclone striking probability.It could be a meaningful reference for issuing typhoon warning. |
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| Keywords: | strike probability comprehensive forecast error tropical cyclone |
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