| 对台风路径统计动力预报方案(SD-75)的统计参数作调整的试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛宗元,吴天泉,李多武,费亮,徐静远.对台风路径统计动力预报方案(SD-75)的统计参数作调整的试验[J].气象,1988,14(8):20-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛宗元 吴天泉 李多武 费亮 徐静远 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海台风研究所
(薛宗元，吴天泉，李多武，费亮)，上海台风研究所(徐静远) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在台风路径统计动力预报方案(SD-75)扩大样本量以后,重新求出运动方程中的主要作用力的回归表达式。然后,利用调整后的方案(简称SD-85)对1987年台风路径的业务预报作了试验,结果表明该方案的业务预报性能优于SD-75预报方案。
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A test on revising of the statistical parametersin the operational model (SD-75) for typhoontrack forecast |
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| Abstract: | The regression expressions of principal forces in th'e motion equation were recalculated after enlarging of sizes of the samples relative to the Philosophy of the statistical-dynamic model (SD-75) for typhoon track forecast. Then a test on the operational forecasts of typhoon track in the 1987 typhoon season was carried out, using the revised model (called SD-85).The results indicate that the later is more advanced than the former in respect of prodictive characteristics. |
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