三层权重订正引导台风预报方案初步应用

本文是两层引导台风预报方案的更新研究试验。在本方案中,采用了以台风中心为坐标原点的移动网格计算环境基本气流,提出了根据850、700和500hPa三层地转基本气流与当时台风移动的接近程度加权计算引导气流的新方法。1987年台风季节,在广州中心气象台实际预报试用的结果表明,本方案的24小时和48小时预报误差比相应的美国关岛发布的台风预报误差要小,比过去多年两层引导方案的平均误差也小。

A weighted 3-level steering scheme of typhoon forecasting

As a promotion study of the previous 2-level steering model, a weighted 3-level steering typhoon forecasting scheme has been developed and put into operation at the Kuangzhou Forecasting Center in the typhoon season of 1987. A verifi-cation of forecasts shows that the averaged typhoon position error produced by the scheme is less than that issued correspondingly by the JTWC at Guam and also less than the mean error produced by the 2-level steering model which has worked for many years.