台风路径相似预报模式的改进与实践

本文对HURRAN模式做了业务性改进。①按具体情况设定不同长度的持续性作用时间;②根据背景形势的情况和预报经验决定相应的权重得分,最后按照权重得分综合出相应的预报路径及相应的概率椭圆, 实践表明,改进后的效果是明显的。路径预报方向误差显著减小,但在台风转向前后移速的预报误差仍较大。

Improvement of analog model and its application to typhoon track predicton

The operational improvements in HURRAN model are made. These are (1) give the different duration of action according to concrete conditions and (2) give the prediction track and its probability ellipse in accordance with weight score, which can be decided based on the general circulation and forecast experiences.The effect of the improved model is evident. The errors of typhoon movement di-rection prediction is much smaller than HURRAN model, but the errors of speed is still bigger around a turn in typhoon track.