| 最优子集回归模型在低纬高原雨季开始期预报中的应用试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 张万诚,郑建萌,解明恩.最优子集回归模型在低纬高原雨季开始期预报中的应用试验[J].气象,2000,26(11):24-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张万诚 郑建萌 解明恩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 云南省红河州气象局,蒙自,661100
2. 云南省气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重科技攻关项目!云南专题“云南短期气候预测系统的研究 ( 96— 90 8— 0 5— 0 8)”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 将所有可能子集回归模型用于云南雨季开始的预报试验，选取有实际预报意义的５００ｈＰａ、海温头年１～１２月及同年１～３月网格点资料作为共同影响因子，分别与云南各站降雨量建立最优子集回归模型，对１９９８年、１９９９年的雨季开始期雨量进行独立预报表明：模型预报准确率优于逐步回归模型。从实况检验来看，效果较好，前期１～３月预报因子和模型适合低纬高原降水预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 最优子集 雨季开始期 回归模型 低纬高原 预报 |
Application of Optimum Subset Regression to Forecast the Beginning of the Rainy Season in the Low Latitude Plateau |
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| Zhang Wancheng,Zheng Jianmeng,Xie Ming'en.Application of Optimum Subset Regression to Forecast the Beginning of the Rainy Season in the Low Latitude Plateau[J].Meteorological Monthly,2000,26(11):24-26. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Wancheng Zheng Jianmeng Xie Ming'en |
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| Abstract: | All potential subset regression models were used to forecast experiment of the beginning of the rainy season in Yunnan province.The grid point data of 500 hPa and SST during the periods from Jan.to Dec.next before this year and from Jan.to Mar.this year were selected for the influent factors.The factors combined with rainfall at weather stations in Yunnan province were used to built the optimum subset regression model.The model was applied to forecast the rainfall of rainy season in 1998 and 1999.The model forecast accurate is better than the stepwise regression. |
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| Keywords: | optimum subset regression beginning of rainy season low latitude rainfall forecast |
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