上海浦西地区雾持续时间的统计释用预报

丰海浦西地区雾持续时间释用预报（PPM）的结果分析和中尺度数值预报资料基础上，应用模式输出统计（MOS）方法，构造了与上海地区成雾条件和雾的维持有一定关系的数值预报要素组成的预报因子，并进行逐步回归分析，建立了雾持续时间的统计释用预报方程，同时，提出了在小样本情况下应用交互验证分析法时克服因子不稳定的一种方法，研制了雾时业务预报的统计释用集成方案，并进行了对比分析，结果表明，统计释用预报集成方案较完全预报（PPM）的结果有明显改进。可供业务试用。

A Study of Fog Continued Time Forecast for Puxi Area in Shanghai Using Statistic Interpretation Technique

Based on the analysis of fog continued time forecasting results calculated by interpretation equations obtained with PPM technique, a large number of forecasting factors constructed by output products of numerical prediction and related to fog maintenance are designed and then analyzed by a step wise regression method in order to found a set of MOS ( interpretation) equations for prediction of fog continued time.Finally, an integrated forecasting scheme is established for operational use A comparison between forecasting results by PPM interpretation equations and those by MOS integrated forecasting scheme shows that the forecasting performance is improved obviously by the latter