山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。

Study on the Operational Automatic Flow of Area Rainfall of Main River Valley in Shanxi Province

On the base of grid point data from T213, HLFS, MM5, and Japanese model, a Shanxi Province precipitation diagnosis model is induced. According to the precipitation forecast function and its good/bad characteristics of every kind of numerical model and the reality that in the numerical model the prognosis is superior to the elemental prediction, the operational automatic flow of the area rainfall is made to start different predictive equations under the background of different synoptic situation, which can effectively overcome the weak point that the forecast output can not quickly respond to the circulation patterns when these patterns are adjusted and can improve the forecast accuracy of the area rainfall.