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| 基于云团特征的短时临近强降水预报技术 | |
| 引用本文： | 胡波,杜惠良,滕卫平,石蓉蓉.基于云团特征的短时临近强降水预报技术[J].气象,2009,35(9):104-111. |
| 作者姓名： | 胡波 杜惠良 滕卫平 石蓉蓉 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省气象台,杭州,310017;中国气象科学研究院,灾害天气国家重点实验室 2. 浙江省气象台,杭州,310017 3. 浙江省气象科学研究所 |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题《浙江省梅汛期暴雨短时临近预报技术研究》 |
| 摘 要： | 通过分析2005-2008年影响浙江的梅汛期强降水云团特征,将云团分为偏北型、居中型和偏南型,研究这三种类型云团云顶亮温与地面1小时强降水极值和10mm/h以上降水覆盖面积关系,结果表明偏南型和偏北型云团有较多相似特征,而居中型云团较其他两种云团则有较多相反特征.通过分析1小时强降水相对于云团中心移动路径的落区,指出梅汛期云顶1小时变温和亮温梯度与地面1小时强降水落区无明显配对模型.随后利用天气形势场资料,分析强降水云团与环境要素场的关系,指出云顶亮温的宏观特征与中高层的垂直速度、水汽通量密切相关,最后尝试建立三种类型强降水云团成熟阶段云顶亮温和地面降水人工神经网络预报方程,给预报员提供参考. |
| 关 键 词： | 梅汛期 对流云团 预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/9/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 4/3/2009 12:00:00 AM |
A Study of Heavy Rain Nowcasting Based on Cloud Cluster Features During Meiyu Periods |
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| Hu Bo,Du Huiliang,Teng Weiping and Shi Rongrong.A Study of Heavy Rain Nowcasting Based on Cloud Cluster Features During Meiyu Periods[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(9):104-111. | |
| Authors: | Hu Bo Du Huiliang Teng Weiping and Shi Rongrong |
| Institution: | 1.Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory;Hangzhou 310017;2.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences;3.Zhejiang Meteorological Institute |
| Abstract: | By analyzing the cloud characteristics during Meiyu periods from 2005 to 2008,the heavy rain clouds were classified into three types,i.e.north-type,center-type and south-type.The relations between the TBB of cloud top and corresponding rainfall extreme and coverage of rainfall rate above 10 mm/h were studied.The results indicate that the north-type and south-type clouds have lots of common feature,and show reverse features compared to the center-type.The position of heavy rainfall corresponding to the movin... |
| Keywords: | Meiyu periods convective cloud nowcasting |
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