孟加拉湾旺盛对流作为广西连续暴雨的前兆信号特征分析

利用1984—2013年30年的GMS卫星资料、FY卫星资料和小时雨量资料，利用统计、合成和个例分析的方法，探讨了孟加拉湾地区强对流在广西连续性暴雨发生前的演变特征和传播机制，发现孟加拉湾对流在广西连续性暴雨前2～3 d异常增强，说明孟加拉湾旺盛对流对广西低涡切变类持续性暴雨具有前兆信号，这一前兆信号对广西暴雨中短期预报具有指导意义。研究结论表明：广西上空对流与孟加拉湾对流有高度相关，从孟加拉湾到广西上空存在强对流向东传播通道。

Analysis on Characteristics of the Strong Convection over the Bay of Bengal as Precursory Signal of Continuous Torrential Rain in Guangxi

Based on the satellite GMS data, FY satellite data and the hourly precipitation data of Guangxi from 1984 to 2013 and using the statistical analysis, the comprehensive analysis and the typical case study methods, the evolution characteristics and propagating mechanism of the convection over the Bay of Bengal before continuous torrential rain occurs in Guangxi are investigated. The results show that the convection over the Bay of Bengal is enhanced abnormally 2-3 d before the occurrence of continuous torrential rains. So the strong convection over the Bay of Bengal is a precursory signal to the vortex shear continuous torrential rain in Guangxi. This precursory signal can guide the short and medium term forecasting of torrential rain in Guangxi. This study conclusion shows that the convections over Guangxi are highly correlated to the convections over the Bay of Bengal. The strong convection eastward propagation channel exits between the Bay of Bengal and Guangxi.