多时次多尺度波谱相似预报风要素

利用1975～2004年500hPa高度和850hPa温度格点场的历史资料，分别计算出不同纬度带的超长波和长波合成波，以此作为风要素预报的基本资料。根据谐波分析原理，结合相似系数法和相似距离法建立一套多时次、多尺度波谱相似预报模型，并提出相似离度概念。经过近两年的运行试验，该预报模型运行稳定，检验结果表明，对于由风压定律制约的风要素预报具有较大的参考作用，在大尺度天气形势控制下，与当地地形、地貌结合形成的风要素预报不失为一种简便易行的风向风速预报方法。利用多时次多尺度动态相似法制作风要素预报既考虑了物理量场不同尺度的空间相似，又考虑了连续时间的过程相似，因此这对中期天气过程的预报是有意义的。

Wind Forecasts with Multi-time scale and Multi-space Spectrum Analogy

The synthesis waves of ultra-long and long waves in different latitudes are calculated based on the grid-data of the 500hPa geopotential height and 850hPa temperature from 1975 to 2004, as a data base for wind forecasting. A forecasting model of multi-time scale and multi-space spectrum analogy is developed together with a new concept of analogue deviation on basis of the principal of harmonic analysis and a combination with coefficient analogy and distance analogy. Test results show that the model works well for the last two years and proved a very useful reference for the forecasts of wind that obey the geostrophic relation. The model, which involves factors of local topography and geography, provides a simple method to forecast the wind direction and velocity under large - scale weather background. As the multi-time scale and multi-space spectrum analogy takes into account of the spatial variety of physical fields as well as the continuous temporal proeesses, it is meaningful for medium-range weather events. The method needs to be improved in the future for forecasts of the strong winds produced by cold air at high latitudes or tropical cyclone, and other supplementary methods are required in condition of meso-scale system or thunder storms.