我国公路低能见度灾害风险评估与区划研究

基于1980—2014年国家地面气象站的能见度观测资料以及社会经济、交通灾情数据信息,采用层次分析法、专家打分法和熵权法,建立了我国主要公路低能见度灾害风险的评估指标体系和权重,开展了我国主要公路低能见度灾害风险区划研究。研究结果表明:我国主要公路低能见度灾害风险分布总体呈东部及新疆北部和南疆盆地部分地区高、中西部大部地区低的趋势;采用层次分析法开展公路低能见度灾害风险评估,能有效减少主观因素的影响,增加评估结果的科学性和合理性。

Risk Assessment and Region Partition of Low Visibility Disasters on Highway in China

Based on the visibility observation data from meteorological stations in China during 1980-2014 and the community economy and traffic disaster data of China, the index system and corresponding weight of low visibility disasters risk assessment on highway in China are established by using the methods of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), expert scoring and entropy weight. And the region division of low visibility risk is also carried out. The results indicate that the highways in eastern China, northern Xinjiang and south of the Xinjiang Basin are in high risk of low visibility disaster, while those in midwest of China are in low risk. Using the method of AHP to do the risk assessment of low visibility on highway could reduce the influence of subjective factors effectively and make the assessment result more scientific and reasonable.