| 新疆克州地区气温年代际变化及均生函数预报模型的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 阿布力米提·司马义,何敏.新疆克州地区气温年代际变化及均生函数预报模型的应用[J].气象,2002,28(9):49-53. |
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| 作者姓名： | 阿布力米提·司马义 何敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州气象局,阿图什,845350
2. 国家气候中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 讨论了克州地区气温突变及年代际变化特征，并利用均生函数预测模型对克州地区气温进行预测试验，1995－2001年预测试验表明，均生函数预测模型可以较好地拟合出气温的气候变化趋势，对年、季气温有较好的预测能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆 克州地区 年代际变化 气温变化 均生函数 预测 |
Decadal Temperature Variation and Application of Mean Generating Function Model to Short-term Climate Prediction in Kezhou District |
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| Abulimiti SimayiHe Min.Decadal Temperature Variation and Application of Mean Generating Function Model to Short-term Climate Prediction in Kezhou District[J].Meteorological Monthly,2002,28(9):49-53. |
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| Authors: | Abulimiti SimayiHe Min |
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| Abstract: | Temperature abrupt changes and its decadal variation characteristics in Kezhou district, Xinjiang are discussed. A mean generating function model is used in the experiment of short-term climate prediction.The results show that this model can correctly simulate the climate trend in the period of 1995-2000, and it also has a good ability in the predication of seasonal and annual temperature variation. |
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| Keywords: | temperature variation\ mean generating function\ prediction |
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