兰江流域近43年气候变化及对水资源的影响

利用累积距平法对兰江流域近43年（1961-2003年）气温、降水量和径流量资料进行分析，研究兰江流域气候变化及其气候变化对水资源的影响。结果显示：兰江流域近43年来气温、降水量总的趋势是上升的；1990年代是兰江流域气温上升和降水增加最显著的时段，主要表现在冬春气温明显上升，夏季降水量明显增加：兰江流域年径流深与年降水量基本保持同步变化。兰江流域过去43年的气候变化对流域内水资源产生了较大的影响，而且由于兰江流域内水资源空间分布差异较大，致使流域内人均水资源占有量较少的金华地区易受气候变化影响而出现供水紧张。

Climate Change of the Lanjiang River Basin in Recent 43 Years and Its Impacts on Water Resources

The climate change and its impacts on water resources in recent 43 years (1961-2003) in the Lanjiang River Basin are studied by analyzing the temperature, precipitation and runoff with the cumulative departure method. The results show that the temperature and precipitation of the Lanjiang basin had a rising trend in the recent 43 years. Since 1961, the temperature and precipitation have increased most in the 1990s which is contributed by rising in temperature of winter and spring and in precipitation of summer. The annual runoff of the Lanjiang River Basin keeps the same trend as the annual precipitation. Thus the climate change in the Lanjiang River Basin has the impact on it's water resources. There is a difference in spatial distribution of the water resources in the Lanjiang River Basin, and the Jinhua City in the Lanjiang River Basin is subject to climate change which can result in a shortage of fresh water.