山东半岛冷流降雪的气候特征及其前兆信号

采用山东省近41年冬季逐日降雪资料和近25年历年11月的海温资料,运用数理统计及小波分析方法,对山东半岛冬季冷流降雪的时空分布特征、演变规律及其与前期11月渤海海温的关系进行了诊断分析。结果表明,降雪分布与丘陵地形密切相关,主要集中在半岛的东北部,自东北向西南地区降雪量急剧减少;暴雪分布具有显著的中尺度特征;冷流降雪以12月最为显著;小波分析表明冷流降雪的主要周期为4年、7年和17年左右;11月渤海海温偏高时,降雪偏多的可能性较大,反之降雪则偏少。

Climatic Features and Previous Signal of Cold Airflow Snowfall in Shandong Peninsula

With statistical and wavelet analysis,snowfall data in recent 41a and SST of November in recent 25a are analyzed for cold airflow snowfall in Shandong Peninsula in winter.The results show that snow distribution has close relation to the landform with more snowfall in the northeast peninsula and less snowfall in the other areas.Cold airflow snowstorms are of remarkable mesoscale character and often occur in December.By using wavelet analysis it is also found that the main period is about 4,7 and 17 years.The statistical analysis shows that SST of Bohai sea in November is remarkably useful signal for cold airflow snowfall prediction in winter.