2003年浙北高温分析及预报

应用1960～2003年500hPa高度场及有关特征指数,分析其与浙北地区高温的关系,得出:高温频数更多地与前期西风槽系统关系密切,高温强度则与20°N以南印度洋至太平洋的辐合带呈高正相关,与4月欧亚经向环流指数为负相关。另外,入、出梅时间也是预示浙北高温的良好信号。2003年浙北高温出现时间早、持续时间长、范围大、强度强、危害严重为历史罕见,其中高温强度强是2003年有别于历年的最显著特征。

Analysis of High Temperature in Northern Zhejiang in the Summer of 2003 and Its Forcasting

The ralationship between high temperature in northern Zhejiang Province and at height field 500hPa and its index since 1960 is analyzed. The results show that the frequency of high tempereture in northern Zhejiang has closer relation with the westerly trough for the previous period.There are well positive correlation with the convergence belt from the Indian Occan to the Pacific Ocean and negative correlation with the indexs of Eurasia longitude correlation in April. The dates on which Bai-u duration begins and ends are also important indicators to the high temperature in northern Zhejiang. It is very rare that the high temperature of northern Zhejiang in 2003 occurred in larger area and for longer time and earier and stronger and severer disaster.