| 平流层冬季50hPa QBO与长江中下游地区夏季旱涝关系的阶段性 |
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| 引用本文： | 李自强,马生春.平流层冬季50hPa QBO与长江中下游地区夏季旱涝关系的阶段性[J].气象,1992,18(1):3-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李自强 马生春 |
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| 作者单位： | 总参气象局
(李自强)，总参气象局(马生春) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过资料分析,揭示了平流层冬季50hPa QBO与长江中下游地区夏季旱涝的关系存在显著阶段性的事实。统计表明,对于完整的时间序列,冬季50 hPaQBO与长江中下游地区夏季旱涝状况的相关很小;若根据相关概率最大的原则,把完整的时间序列划分为三个阶段,则各阶段内冬季50hPa QBO东、西风位相与长江中下游地区夏季降水及旱涝状况有非常显著的相关,而相邻的两阶段间上述两者之间的关系则完全相反。分析还表明,冬季50hPa QBO自身的异常演变与三个阶段的划分具有一定的联系。
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The stage character of relationship between 50 hPa QBO in winter and summer drought/flood trend in the lower and middle reaches of changjiang River |
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| Abstract: | It is shown that the relationship between the phase of 50 hPa QBO in winter and the summer drought/flood trend in the lower and middle reaches of Changjiang River is characterized by very marked stages. For the entire period of 1953-1989, the relationship between them is very weak. But according to the data they could be devided into three stages.The relationship in each stage is very strong.And the anomalous evolution of 50 hPa QBO is examined that shows to be related properly with the stratifying of the three stages. |
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