陕西苹果成熟期连阴雨指数及预报方法研究

选取陕西苹果30个生产基地县中果业发展水平具有代表性的12个台站,近50年(1961—2009年)9月中旬至10月上旬苹果成熟期连续3天及以上降水日数和无降水日数资料,设计并计算其连阴雨指数。将连阴雨指数分成强、偏强、中等、偏弱和弱5个等级,并用典型K阶自回归AR(K)预测模式进行独立样本预测试验。结果表明连阴雨指数能够较客观地反映基地县的连阴雨强度,且典型K阶自回归预测模式预测准确及基本准确率在83%左右,预报效果尚好,具有实用价值。

Research on Index of Continuous Rainfall Days and Forecasting Method in Shaanxi Apple Maturity Period

Using the data of 3 consecutive rainfall days and no rain days during mid September to early October in near 50 years (1961-2009) from 12 representative stations in major apple cultivating counties of Shaanxi, the index of continuous rainfall days (ICRD) has been designed and calculated, and is divided into the strongest, stronger, medium, weak and weaker five levels, on the basis of which, conducting the independent sample trial by using typical K order autoregressive AR (K) forecasting model. The basic result of this research is that the ICRD could objectively reflect the intensity of continuous rainfall days in apple maturity period. In addition, the typical K order autoregressive forecasting model has about 83% forecasts being accurate or basically accurate, indicating that the effect of this forecasting model is still good and of practical value.