2003年冬季空气质量趋势预测方法

使用短期气候趋势预报原理与短期空气质量预报相结合的方法，根据1～7月的气候特征（背景）、天气形势以及各种相关气象要素统计分析，对冬季采暖期空气质量进行综合预报。利用上述方法对2003年度（2003．11～2004．3）冬季采暖期空气质量进行了试预测。即：在2003年冬季气候预测的基础上，通过统计分析2003冬季相似年份的天气形势、污染气象条件，确定污染潜势和气象参数。并运用现业务使用的污染物浓度预报方程，计算冬季各月的逐日空气污染物（SO2、NO2、PM10）的浓度。最后综合2003年冬季气候特征预测和日空气质量计算结果，做出冬季空气污染趋势预报。

The Trend forecast Method of Air Quality in Winter 2003

The trend forecast of air quality of winter is made based on the climatic character and the weather background and elements from January to July. Combined with both methods of the short-term climatic forecast and the stitistical analysis of the weather elements and the air quality forecast, the tendency of air pollution during the winter from November in 2003 to March in 2004 was attenpted. That is, at first, the pollution potential and the meteorological parameter is established with the statistic and analytical result of the ground weather background and pollutionweather conditions in analogical years matching the heating season of 2003 on the basis of the climate prediction of the winter. Then, the day-by-day consistency of aerial pollutant is calculated by the forecast equation of aerial pollutant consistency. Finally, the air-pollution trend prediction of heating days is acquired after generally analyzing the results of climate forecast in 2003 winter and daily air quality.