| 利用滚动式相关分析方法普查历史资料初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 侯淑梅,孙忠欣,孙秀忠,蔡冬梅,信志红.利用滚动式相关分析方法普查历史资料初探[J].气象,2002,28(5):47-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 侯淑梅 孙忠欣 孙秀忠 蔡冬梅 信志红 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省东营市气象局,东营,257091 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省气象局“九五”科研项目“东营市月、季、年降水预报自动化系统”课题资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了一种新的普查历史资料的方法－滚动式相关分析方法，并将滚动相关分析法与一般相关分析法的相关分析结果进行了对比分析。结果表明，滚动式相关分析方法提高了相关稳定性，预报效果优于一般相关分析法。
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| 关 键 词： | 历史资料 滚动式相关分析法 稳定性 降水量预报 短期气候预测 天气资料 |
Preliminary Study of Rolling Correlative Analysis Method for Investigating History Data |
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| Hou Shumei\ Sun Zhongxin\ Sun Xiuzhong\ Xin Zhihong\ Wang Zonghai.Preliminary Study of Rolling Correlative Analysis Method for Investigating History Data[J].Meteorological Monthly,2002,28(5):47-49. |
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| Authors: | Hou Shumei\ Sun Zhongxin\ Sun Xiuzhong\ Xin Zhihong\ Wang Zonghai |
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| Abstract: | A new method,rolling correlative analysis, which can generally investigate the history data is introduced,and then the comparison analysis between rolling correlation and general correlation methods is carried out.The results show that the correlation of the factors which are gained from rolling correlation method is more stable,and its forecast accuracy is better than general correlation method. |
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| Keywords: | rolling correlative analysis method\ stability\ precipitation forecast |
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