热带气旋路径客观业务预报综合方案的试验

A test on the comprehensive method for the tropical cyclone track forecast

Here shows a new statistical system (CTFS) combining three differenttechniques,SD-85,CLIPER, and 500hPa steering which is being used atShanghai Typhoon Institute.Three sets of forecast components obtainedfrom the three methods mentioned-abbve are taken as new independentvariables.Then,stepwise regression analysis has been adopted to establishthe statistical relation between the actual displacement components and the above variables. Finally, the system was tested on operational data for 1987 and 1988.The results show that the new system is more advanced than its three sub-method in respect of forecast precision.