安徽省农业干旱综合监测技术及其业务试用

针对安徽省农业干旱业务服务需求,利用已业务应用的农业干旱指标:土壤墒情、累积湿润指数、植被供水指数,配合阶段降水量和降水日数,进行农业干旱综合监测指标和方法研究.综合指标中各因子权重的确定采用层次分析法.根据安徽省气候过渡区下垫面地表特征差异和云天状况,分别确定了湿润区、半湿润区的晴空和云覆盖4种状态下的各因子权重序列,均通过了一致性检验;建立了相应的农业干旱综合监测模型;确定了4要素和5要素农业干旱监测等级标准.综合模型概括了各单指标主体监测结果,有利于对农业旱情的综合判断,监测模型检验效果良好,可业务应用.

The Agricultural Drought Composite Monitoring Technique and Its Operational Application in Anhui Province

Aiming at the operation and service demands of agricult ural drought in Anhui province, indices and methods of agricultural drought comp osite monitoring were studied by using agricultural drought indices that were ap plied for operation. These indices are soil moisture, accumulated humidity index , vegetation supply water index, period precipitation and precipitation days etc . The Analytic Hierarchy Price method was used to decide the weight of each fact or in the composite index. Four sequences of multi factor weight were determine d for clear sky and cloudy sky in the humid zone and semi humid zone, and coinc idence test were passed, corresponding composite models were established. T he grades of drought indices of four factors and five factors were confirmed. The composite models generally reflected moni toring results of each factor, which can give a synthetic judgment of drought si tuation and can be applied in the operational monitoring.