台风路径及闽南台风天气预报业务系统

该文应用ＨＵＲＲＡＮ相似台风路径预报方法，引进５００ｈＰａ天气形势，提高了台风咱径预报能力；应用天气学方法、物理量诊断和预报员的丰富实践经验，以及卫星云图上的台风云系特征，研制台风影响下的闽南台风天气（大风、暴雨）预报专家系统，得出定量、客观的预报结论。该系统运行所需的资料易于获取，从采集资料到输出预报结果，１０分钟便可完成，大大缩短了制作台风预报的时间。

The Operation System of Typhoon Track and Weather Prediction for the South Fujian

By using HURRAN analog method of forecasting typhoon tracks,combined with 500hPa synoptic situation,the prediction of typhoon tracks has been improved.Synoptical models,diagnotic analyses,cloud features of typhoon,and experiences of weatherman have been applied to the study of the expert system which can give quantitative and objective conclusion of forecasting the typhoon weather (high wind,heavy rain)in the south Fujian.The data needed by the system are easily available.The system takes only about ten minutes from collecting the data to outputing the results of prediction,which reduces the time expense greatly in making typhoon prediction.