| 台风路径预报集成方法的一个试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 李建云,丁裕国,史久恩.台风路径预报集成方法的一个试验[J].热带气象学报,1998,14(3):258-262. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李建云 丁裕国 史久恩 |
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| 作者单位： | 空军第七研究所(李建云)，南京气象学院(丁裕国)，北京气象学院(史久恩) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用集成预报方法改造台风路径预报，取得明显效果。对常用的台风路径预报相似模式（ＴＳＦ）及Ｍａｒｋｏｖ型相似模式（ＭＴＳＦ）所做预报试验表明，经集成方法改进后的ＭＴＳＦ，ＴＳＦ，其预报能力有明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 集成预报 厄尔尼诺 台风路径 预报试验 |
| 收稿时间： | 1994/10/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1995/5/24 0:00:00 |
A FORECAST TEST OF TYPHOON TRACK BY MEANS OF CONSENSUS FORECAST TECHNIQUES |
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| Li Jianyun,Ding Yuguo and Shi Jiuen.A FORECAST TEST OF TYPHOON TRACK BY MEANS OF CONSENSUS FORECAST TECHNIQUES[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,1998,14(3):258-262. |
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| Authors: | Li Jianyun Ding Yuguo and Shi Jiuen |
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| Institution: | The Seventh Research Institute of Air Force, 100085;Nanjing Institute of Meteorology;Beijing Institute of Meteorology |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, obvious advances of forecast of Typhoon track by means of consensus forecast techniques are presented. The results of forecast trials show that the forecast capability is obviously improved after the commonly-used Similarity Forecast Model and Markov Similarity Forecast Model are modified by using consensus forecast techniques. |
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| Keywords: | Consensus forecast El Nino Typhoon track |
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