用灰色模型预测厄尼诺事件

厄尼诺是影响全球天气和气候的重大气象—海洋事件,因此对厄尼诺事件发生的事前预测是至关重要的。本文用1860—1986年之间的厄尼诺年份的数据,按顺序每五个厄尼诺年构成一组,分别建立灰色模型,用这些模型作一步预测并与实况对比进行验证。同时,厄尼诺年与南方涛动指数间也建立了二变量灰色模型。所得结果表明,能用灰色模型对未来厄尼诺年的出现作出展望。

PREDICTION OF EL NINO EVENTS USING GREY MODEL

The E1 Nino is a substantial atmospheric-oceanic event which impacts weather and climate over the globe, so the prediction for an occurrence of E1 Nino event is very important. Can we estimate when next E1 Nino will happen?This problem is studied with grey prediction model in this paper. Using the data of the chronology of E1 Nino from 1860 to 1986, grey models are built with the year groups composed of the successive five years, for example X₅={1862, 1864, 1868, 1871, 1877 } X₅={1864, 1868, 1871, 1877, 1880 } X₅={1965, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1983 };These models are used to make an one-step prediction and verified with the observations. Meanwhile, the bivariable grey model is also established in relating the E1 Nino event to the southern oscillation index. It is shown that the grey model is able to predict the occurrence of E1 Nino year.