新疆乌兰乌苏物候变化规律及其对气候变化的响应

分析新疆乌兰乌苏农业气象试验站1980—2002年物候与相应气候因子资料,得出乌兰乌苏23a来气温增高,降水增多,气候增暖增湿;候鸟停留时间增长,与积温、日照时数和降水量的年变化趋势一致,除降水外,其他均存在显著正相关关系;木本植物生育期延长,与4—10月平均气温、平均相对湿度、总日照时数和总降水量趋势一致;初霜和终霜均推迟,无霜期缩短;初雪和初次积雪提前,终雪推迟,冬季雪日增长;积雪开始融化提前,完全融化推迟,融化时间增长;土壤表面开始解冻日期趋势提前,而土壤表面开始冻结日期趋势推迟。另外,通过物候与气象因子建立的最优回归方程,获得物候对气候响应的定量关系,为生态环境研究提供一定的理论依据。

Variation Rule of Phenology and its Response of Climatic Change in Xinjiang Wulanwusu Area

By analyzing the phonological phenomenon and homologous climatic data from 1980 to 2002 in Xinjiang Wulanwusu,it is shown that the temperature is rising,the rainfall is increased and climate comes moist and warm;the settling dates of migrant comes longer,the trend of which accord with the annual change of accumulation temperature,sunshine duration and rainfall,they exist positive correlation except for precipitation;the phenophase of woody plants lengthens,the trend of which accord with the average temperature for Apr.to Oct.,average relative humidity,sum of sunshine duration and rainfall;first frost and latest frost defers,the frostless season shortens;first snow and snow cover occur earlier,latest snow occurs later,days of existing snow comes longer;the snow cover starting-melt comes earlier,which finishes later,the snow melting period comes longer;the initiatory date of soil thawing comes earlier,but the initiatory date of soil freezing comes later.Otherwise,by establishing optimization regression equation between the phenology and climatic factors,we get the quantificational response relationship for the phonological phenomenon to climatic factors,which offer some theoretical gist for the study of environment.