| 目标检验方法在高分辨率数值天气预报检验中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李佳-,陈葆德-,徐同-.目标检验方法在高分辨率数值天气预报检验中的应用[J].新疆气象,2016,10(5):1-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李佳- 陈葆德- 徐同- |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学;中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室,中国气象局上海台风研究所;中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室,中国气象局上海台风研究所;中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | (41175094)；公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006002,GYHY201206006)；上海市科学技术委员会重点基金(13231203300) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于高分辨率数值模式的特点,为了弥补传统站点对站点等检验方法的不足,采用基于目标诊断的空间检验方法 MODE,对上海快速更新同化系统预报的2014年3月19日强对流降水和冰雹雷达回波进行了客观检验。该方法通过在空间场中识别目标,综合考虑了空间位置、形状、面积等多种因素,采用模糊逻辑算法计算预报和观测目标的相似度。结果表明,MODE在高分辨率数值模式检验中比传统方法具有明显的优势,尤其针对雷达回波的检验有较高的实际应用价值。同时讨论了MODE方法卷积平滑半径参数的选取对高分辨模式检验结果的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 目标检验 MODE 数值模式 雷达回波 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/6/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/7/2016 12:00:00 AM |
Application of the Object-based Verification Method for High Resolution NWP |
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| LI Jia-,CHEN Baode- and XU Tong-.Application of the Object-based Verification Method for High Resolution NWP[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2016,10(5):1-9. |
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| Authors: | LI Jia- CHEN Baode- and XU Tong- |
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| Institution: | Nanjing University of Information Science Technology;Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration;Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration;Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone,China Meteorological Administration |
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| Abstract: | Based on the characteristics of high resolution numerical weather prediction, considering the disadvantages of the conventional verification methods, using the Method of Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) carried out an objective evaluation on precipitation and radar echo forecast of strong convective weather on March 19, 2014 of the SMB-WARR system.The method takes account of spatial location, shape, area and other attributes of objects, identifies objects in each fields, calculates similarity of forecast and observed objects using fuzzy logic algorithm. Case study shows that, this method has evident advantages and higher practical application value especially in the examination of hail radar echo in the high resolution numerical weather forecast. At the same time, the choice of a convolution radius in MODE for the high resolution model verification is discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Object-Based verification MODE numerical model radar echo |
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