闪电定位资料在天山北坡强对流天气短临预警中的分析及应用

选用2013—2015年4—9月天山北坡短时强降雨和冰雹过程,及其前后对应的闪电定位资料进行研究。通过分析,发现两种强对流天气过程前后正、负闪均在一定范围内呈波动性变化,且均以负闪为主。两种强对流过程前后均有2次闪电突增现象,且都是第一次突增现象更具指导意义,突增现象发生在强对流天气开始前10～40 min不等,持续时间10～20 min,突增量在2～8次。可得出闪电极性和闪电突增在强对流短临预警中的阈值。

Application Research of Lightning Location Data in Short-term Early Warning of Strong Convective Weather along Tianshan Mountainin Northern Xinjiang

This article selects the short-term heavy rainfall and hail process on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in the period of flood season (from April to September) from 2013 to 2015 in Xinjiang, and the corresponding lightning data. It is found that both positive and negative flashes fluctuate within a certain range and the two strong convective weather processes are dominated by negative flash after analysis. There are two lightning spikes before and after the two strong convection processes, and the first sudden increase phenomenon is more instructive. The sudden increase occurs between 10 and 40 minutes before the start of strong convective weather. The time is 10 or 20 minutes and the burst is between 2 and 8 times. After research, the thresholds of lightning polarity and lightning sudden increase in strong convection short-term warning are obtained.