短期气候预测的现状 问题与出路(一)

从方法论上分析了短期气候预测的现状、问题与出路。着重指出：基础理论研究的欠缺又不甚得法是短期气候预测准确率提高缓慢的原因；应当将数值预报的提法从初值问题改为演变问题，进一步提为反问题；统计学方法与动力学方法要相互借鉴，取长补短，融合发展。

Short Term Climatic Forecast: Present Condition,Problems and Way Out

Present condition,problems and way out for short -term climatic forecast were analyzed according to methodolo-gy.Slow increased accuracy of short-term climatic forecast could be cau sed by lack of the basic theory and eff ective method.Numerical weather prediction should be transferred from an initial condition problem to an evolutio n problem.It should bring statistical method and dynamic method closer together and l earn from other' s strong points to offset one' s own weaknesses.