CUACE系统在乌鲁木齐空气质量预报中的效果检验

采用2013年12月1日—2014年2月28日空气质量观测数据,对CUACE系统在乌鲁木齐空气质量预报中的效果进行离线检验。结果表明,在污染物浓度和空气质量分指数方面,NO2的预报效果优于PM10和PM2.5,28 h预报时效的预报效果优于52 h预报时效;在首要污染物预报结果中,28 h预报时效的总体预报效果优于52 h,28 h预报时效中PM2.5预报正确率为65%;从空气质量等级的预报效果来看,28 h预报时效与52 h预报时效无明显差别,对NO2和PM10的预报准确率达到100%,对PM2.5三级预报准确率达到90%以上,对二、四级预报准确率在70%～80%之间,对五、六级重度污染预报值偏低两个级别或以上。

Verification of CUACE Air Quality Forecast in Urumqi

By contrast with air quality observation data during December 1, 2013 to February 28, 2014, the simulation effect of CUACE is verified. The results show that in term of pollutant concentrations and individual air quality index, the forecast effect of NO2 is better than PM10 and PM2.5, the results of 28 hour forecast time are better than 52 hour forecast time. In primary pollutants results, the forecast performance of 28 hour forecast period is also better than 52 hour forecast period and the forecast accuracy of PM2.5 of 28 hour forecast period is 65%. There are no significant difference between 28 hour forecast period and 52 hour forecast period in term of air quality index level forecast. The forecast accuracy of the model on contamination index level of NO2 and PM10 reach up to 100%. The forecast accuracy on PM2.5 in level-3 is more than 90%, level-2 and level-4 is about 70-80%, while the forecast levels are always low two levels or above when observation level are five and six.