鲁西南8-9月份阴雨日数与前期大气环流关系

对鲁西南1979-2008年8-9月份阴雨日数进行统计分析，发现8-9月份阴雨日数总体呈上升趋势；与前期北半球500hPa月平均高度场进行相关分析，结果表明：8-9月份阴雨日数与北半球500hPa平均高度场存在显著的滞后相关性，共得出45个优势相关区，相关区具有明显的区域性，大多数优势相关区出现在60篘以南地区。阴雨日数与前期极涡位置及强弱有很好的对应关系。从优势相关区提取的预报因子具有明显的季节性，上一年秋冬季预报因子占6/9；建立预报方程，试用效果较好。

The relationship between the 8-9 months raining days of Southwest of Shandong and the early atmospheric circulation and forecast

Giving the Southwest of Shandong 1979-2008 8-9 months raining days the statistical analysis, found that 8-9 months raining days showing the upward trend; and giving correlation analysis with the previous monthly average height field of Northern Hemisphere 500hPa,showing that 8-9 months raining days and the average height field of northern Hemisphere 500hPa existing a significant lag correlation. obtaining a total of 45 advantage-related areas, with significant regional correlation zone and most of the areas being in south of 60ºN. Raining days and pre-position and strength of the polar vortex have a good correlation. Forecast elements extracted from the advantage-related areas have apparent seasonal, forecast elements of autumn and winter last year accounted for 6 / 9. Establishing prediction equations, the trial result is better.