乌鲁木齐区域高分辨率数值预报系统V2.0 预报性能客观检验

数值预报系统检验结果对预报产品的释用和系统的改进有着重要的作用。基于MET（Model Evaluation Tools）检验工具对乌鲁木齐区域高分辨率数值预报系统V2.0 (Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System—Central Asia V2.0，简称RMAPS-CA V2.0）在2021年各季节中的预报性能进行客观检验评估，主要检验了2m温度、10m风速、高空位势高度等要素，并与RMAPS-CA V1.0同期预报性能进行对比分析。（1）2m温度预报偏差在冬季和春季整体为负偏差，在夏季和秋季整体为正偏差；各个季节的平均预报偏差均在2℃以内，预报性能秋季最优，冬季最差。各个季节10m风速预报整体为正偏差且差异不大，平均误差在0.5-1.0 m/s之间，预报性能秋季最优，春季最差。（2）高空位势高度预报偏差在冬季整体为负偏差，在其余季节整体为正偏差，预报性能冬季最优，春季最差。高空风场预报偏差在冬季和春季400hPa以下为正偏差，400hPa以上为负偏差；夏季和秋季整体为负偏差，预报性能春季最优、夏季最差。高空温度场预报偏差在冬季整体为负偏差，其余季节整体为正偏差，预报性能春季最优、夏季最差。（3）降水晴雨预报效果较好，但除夏季外以空报为主；随降水阈值增大、TS评分减小，多以漏报为主，降水评分在冬季最高、夏季最低。从降水个例检验看，24h累计降水为大量和中量的国家站点预报性能有所提升，逐6h累计降水TS评分略有提升。（4）RMAPS-CA V2.0系统各要素预报偏差的变化特征与RMAPS-CA V1.0相似，预报能力整体上要优于RMAPS-CA V1.0。

Objective Verification on RMAPS-CA V2.0 System during 2021

The forecast performance of Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Central Asia V2.0 (RMAPS-CA V2.0) in 2021 was objectively verified seasonally by using Model Evaluation Tools (MET) and further compared with RMAPS-CA V1.0 for the same period. The results show that, the system''s forecast deviation of 2m temperature was mainly negative in winter and spring, mainly positive in summer and autumn, and the forecast performance was the best in autumn and the worst in winter. The average error of 10 m wind speed was between 0.5-1.0 m/s, and the forecast performance was the best in autumn and the worst in spring. The system''s forecast deviation of high-altitude geopotential height was mainly negative in winter, and mainly positive in other seasons, the forecast performance was the best in winter and the worst in spring. The forecast deviation of high-altitude wind field was positive deviation below 400hPa in winter and spring, and negative deviation above 400hPa; negative deviation was dominant in summer and autumn, and the forecast performance was the best in spring and the worst in summer. The forecast deviation of the high-altitude temperature field was mainly negative in winter and positive in other seasons, and the forecast performance was the best in spring and the worst in summer. The sunny and rainy forecast effect of the system was good, and the precipitation score was the highest in winter and the lowest in summer. Judging from the precipitation case test, the system had improved the forecasting performance of national stations with heavy and moderate accumulated precipitation in 24h, and the Threat Score (TS) score of accumulated precipitation each 6-h had been slightly improved too. In 2021, the variation characteristics of the forecast deviations of various elements of the RMAPS-CA V2.0 system were similar to those of RMAPS-CA V1.0, and the overall forecasting capability was better than that of RMAPS-CA V1.0.