陕西森林火灾重灾年与太阳活动、南方涛动异常变化的关系研究

根据陕西省1954—2013年的森林火灾统计数据和1951—2013年南方涛动指数(SOI)、太阳黑子数逐月观测数据,采用异常度分析技术,研究了森林火灾重灾年当年及前后各3 a逐月南方涛动指数(SOI)异常变化规律及同期太阳活动特点。研究发现,陕西省森林火灾重灾时段以关键年前3 a至关键年当年SOI指数持续负值为前提条件,并在前1年8月逐渐增大,若同时太阳黑子活动处于谷期或者谷期极小值向较大值转变的时期,可预测未来一段时间内陕西可能处于森林火灾高火险时段,这一结果可为当地森林火灾重灾年的预测和森林火灾防控物资的调度提供参考。

Study on Relationship between Serious Forest Fire Year and Abnormal Change of Solar Activity and Southern Oscillation

Based on the annual forest fire statistics in the year of 1954 to 2013 in Shaanxi province and monthly southern oscillation index (SOI), the sunspot number from 1951 to 2013, abnormal change of SOI and solar activity in three years ahead of the serious forest fire year and three years after the serious year were studied with the technology of analysis to abnormal degree. It was concluded from the study that, as a prerequisite to serious forest fire year in Shaanxi province, there were continued negative value for SOI in three years ahead of the serious year to the serious year, then SOI began to increase in August in the previous year. And at the same time if the sunspot activity was in the valley period or the sunspot number was turning from minimum to larger value, we can predict that Shaanxi province maybe in a higher fire danger in the later future. The result can provide reference for local serious forest fire forecast and forest fire prevention and control supplies scheduling.