气候变化对滇金丝猴分布的潜在影响

分析气候变化对动物分布的影响，对气候变化影响下保护生物多样性具有重要的意义。利用CART(classification and regression tree,分类和回归树)生态位模型，采用A1、A2、B1和B2气候变化情景，模拟分析了气候变化对我国滇金丝猴分布范围及空间格局的影响趋势。结果显示：气候变化后，滇金丝猴目前适宜分布范围将减小，新适宜及总适宜范围将扩大，在1991-2020年时段较大，从1991-2020年时段到2081-2100年时段随气候变化时间段延长而逐渐缩小，其中A1情景下变化最大，B1情景下变化最小。气候变化后，滇金丝猴目前适宜分布区东北部及南部适宜范围将缩小，西部和西北及东南部适宜范围将扩大。气候变化后，滇金丝猴目前适宜、新适宜和总适宜分布区范围与我国年均气温和年降水量变化呈负相关。多元回归分析表明，滇金丝猴目前适宜、新适宜和总适宜分布范围均随我国年均气温升高和年降水量增加而减少，其中气温变化影响比降水量变化影响大。因此，气候变化后，近期将使滇金丝猴目前分布适宜分布范围减少，新适宜分布范围将扩大，随气候变化程度增强，新适宜及总适宜分布范围都将减小。

Potential effects of climate change on the distributions of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey ( Pygathrix Bieti) in China

It is crucial to understand rationally the effects of climate change on the distribution of species for the biodiversity conservation under the climate change. The effects of climate change on the distribution of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey (Pygathrix Bieti) in China were analyzed by the classification and regression tree (CART) niche model and climate change scenarios of A1, A2, B1 and B2. The results show that the current suitable distribution ranges of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey will decrease after climate change. However, the new distribution region and total distribution region of the monkey will increase, especially in the period of 1991-2020, and then they will decrease from the period of 1991-2020 to the period of 2081-2100. The changes are obvious under scenario A1 of climate changes, and are not obvious under scenario B1 of climate changes. Additionally, the northeast and south ranges of current distribution regions of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey will reduce, while new regions will expand towards west and northwest and southeast of current distribution region with climate changes. The changes of the current distribution regions, new distribution regions and total distribution regions of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey all have negative correlations with annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation in China. The current distribution, new distribution and total distribution regions of the monkey are all decreased with increase of annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation in China by multi-regressive analysis, and the effects of annual mean air temperature in China are larger than that of annual precipitation in China. Thus, climate changes in China will make the current distribution regions of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey decreased and make the expanding distribution regions increased in the near future, while the new expanding distribution regions and total distribution regions of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey will decrease with the increase of climate change intensity.