西太平洋副热带高压异常与中国长江中下游夏季降水关系研究综述

综述了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水异常的影响。在回顾西太平洋副热带高压强度、位置等特征及其异常成因的基础上，总结了近年来气象学者关于西太平洋副热带高压对中国长江中下游夏季降水异常的影响和机理等方面的研究成果：西太平洋副热带高压异常不仅受动力因素的影响还受热力的因素的影响；西太平洋副热带高压的强度存在3-4 a、10-13 a的震荡周期，在1978年前后发生气候突变，脊线位置由正距平为主转为负距平为主，而强度正好相反，这样的变化显著影响了中国长江中下游地区的降水；西太平洋副热带高压的位置、形状和强度是长江中下游地区旱涝的决定条件之一；利用西太平洋副热带高压来对长江中下游降水进行预测，主要有4种方法。提出了当前存在的问题和需要进一步研究的方向。

A review on relationship between subtropical high anomaly over West Pacific and summer precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The effect of subtropical high anomaly over West Pacific on summer precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River was reviewed. On the basis of intensity and location of subtropical high over West Pacific and its formation reasons, the effect and mechanism of subtropical high anomaly over West Pacific on summer precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River were summarized. The results indicate that dynamic factors and thermodynamic factors both affect subtropical high. There are 3-4 years and 10-13 years oscillation periods for subtropical high intensity over West Pacific. There is an abrupt change about 1978. The ridge position index starts to move from positive to negative, while the strength index is contrary. These changes influence significantly precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The location, shape and intensity of subtropical high over West Pacific are one of decisive factors for drought and flood in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. There are generally four methods to be used to predict precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River based on subtropical high over West Pacific. Finally, some existed problems and further directions are briefly discussed.