湖南一次重大森林火灾人工增雨作业条件与效果分析

人工增雨作业是森林灭火的一个重要科技手段，作业条件预报与作业时机的把握是作业成败的关键。本文以湖南省“20130810”大乘山重大森林火灾人工增雨作业情况为基础，利用多种气象资料对作业条件预报与作业方案设计进行分析，采用作业前后雷达回波参量变化、最大相关系数的雷达回波跟踪法（TREC）对作业效果进行评估。结果表明：大乘山重大森林火灾人工增雨作业通过捕捉台风外围边缘快速生消的积云云系，有效地让局地积云降水降落到了位置相对集中的火场，8月15日第7、第8次地面人工增雨作业15 min后雨势加大，有效压制火势，及时解救了火场被困人员；8月16日第11次作业为明火扑灭发挥了重要作用。针对局地积云开展森林灭火人工增雨作业，使用火箭、高炮等地面装备更容易抓住作业时机，针对大范围的积层混合云系更适合开展飞机增雨作业，飞机在火情侦察拍照和气象探测等方面能发挥重要作用。

Analysis of the seeding conditions and effects of an artificial precipitation enhancement operations on a serious forest fire fighting in Hu'nan province

Artificial precipitation enhancement operation is an important scientific and technological means for extinguishing the forest bush fire.Forecasting operational conditions and grasping operational opportunity are the keys to the success or failure of the operation.Based on the condition of artificial precipitation enhancement operation on the serious forest fire disaster in Dacheng Mountain in Hu'nan province on August 10-16,2013,the operational conditions forecast and operational scheme design are analyzed by using various meteorological data,and then the effects of operation are evaluated by employing the radar echo parameter variation method before and after the operation and the radar echo tracking method of maximum correlation coefficient (TREC).The results show that the artificial precipitation enhancement operation on the serious forest fire disaster in Dacheng Mountain effectively enables the local precipitation to fell to the fire site where the location is relatively concentrated by capturing the cumulus cloud system that rapidly grows and dissipates at the periphery of the typhoon.As a result,the rain increases after 15 minutes of the 7th,8th artificial precipitation enhancement operations on August 15,which effectively suppresses the forest fire and saves the trapped persons in time.In addition,the 11th operation on August 16 plays an important role in extinguishing the forest fire.In general,it is easier to seize the operation opportunity by using rockets,artillery and other ground equipment for carrying out artificial precipitation enhancement operation for local cumulus clouds,while seeding by aircraft is more appropriate for a wide range of convective-stratiform mixed clouds.Besides,aircraft plays an important role in forest fire reconnaissance photographed and meteorological observation and so on.