玉米螟越冬死亡率的气象条件及其预报模型研究

根据1994-2004年黑山气象资料和玉米螟越冬期资料，采用通径分析方法，对玉米螟越冬期的气象条件与死亡率的关系进行分析，建立了4月和5月死亡率的预报模型。结果表明：玉米螟受3-5月的气象因子影响较大，死亡率明显高于越冬前的死亡率，建立的模型能够反映玉米螟越冬期气象条件与死亡率的响应关系,可在实际预报业务中作为参考依据。考虑越冬前死亡率的预报拟合率明显高于不考虑越冬前死亡率的模拟结果，说明在对玉米螟进行预报时，只考虑气象因子，不考虑虫源基数是不全面的。

Meteorological conditions of corn borer mortality rate during overwintering and its forecast model

Based on the meteorological data from 1994 to 2004 in Heishan of Liaoning province and the corn borer overwintering data,the meteorological conditions during corn borer overwintering and the relationship with mortality rate were analyzed by path analysis method.Forecast model of the mortality rates during April and May was established.The results indicate that the mortality rates of corn borer are significantly influenced by the meteorological conditions from March to May.The mortality rates of this period are higher than those of prophase.The forecast model can display the relationship between meteorological conditions and mortality rates during corn borer overwintering,which can be used as the reference in forecast operation.The accuracy rates of the forecast are better if the mortality rates of corn borer before overwintering are considered.It shows that the forecast of corn borer mortality rates is not accurate if the meteorological conditions are only considered.Thus,the larva basic number should be considered.