营口市百年气温变化特征研究

基于1904—2019年营口市国家气象观测站的气温资料，利用线性倾向估计、7 a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，分析了近116 a营口市气温变化规律和特征。结果表明：1904—2019年，营口市年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势，上升速率为0.17℃·(10 a)^-1。各季平均气温变化也均呈现出明显的上升趋势，其中冬季平均气温上升速率最快，春季、秋季次之，夏季上升最为缓慢。营口市年平均气温具有明显的年代际变化特征，大致经历了“冷—暖—冷—暖”的变化过程，各季也呈现出不同的变化过程。营口市年平均气温、春季、夏季、秋季及冬季平均气温均发生了突变，突变的年份分别为1987年、1988年、2015年、1991年和1979年。营口市年平均气温存在6 a、20 a、37 a及64 a的周期震荡，其中64 a为主周期，各季平均气温也存在不同时间尺度的周期震荡。

Study on the characteristics of temperature change in Yingkou city in the past hundred years

Based on the temperature data from the national meteorological observation station from 1904-2019, the variation law and characteristics of temperature in Yingkou city in recent 116 years were analyzed using the linear trend estimation, 7 years moving average, Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and other methods.The results show that the annual mean temperature in Yingkou city illustrates a clear increasing trend, with an increasing rate of 0.17℃ per decade.The average temperature of each season also shows an obvious upward trend, with the fastest rising rate in winter, followed by spring and autumn, and the slowest rising rate in summer.The annual mean temperature has obvious interdecadal variation characteristics, which roughly experiences the change process of "cold-warm-cold-warm", and also presents different change processes in each season.There were abrupt changes in annual mean temperature, spring, summer, autumn, and winter mean temperature in 1987, 1988, 2015, 1991, and 1979, respectively.The annual mean temperature has periodic oscillation of 6 years, 20 years, 37 years, and 64 years, of which 64 years is the main period.The seasonal mean temperature also has periodic oscillation of different time scales in Yingkou city.