辽宁省热带气旋模式预报业务系统

介绍了在MM5模式基础上建立起来的辽宁省热带气旋模式预报业务系统及2005年的预报情况。系统以T213L31产品为背景场和侧边界,初始场中同化了常规探空报、地面报及一些卫星反演资料,模式的初值中还嵌入人造热带气旋进行模式运算。系统每日自动运行2次;模式输出结果经后处理后,编写到通用绘图软件GrADs中,以图形显示,并在沈阳区域气象中心局域网的中尺度数值预报网页上显示。2005年汛期热带气旋预报表明,系统对热带气旋的路径和暴雨的预报效果较好。

Tropical cyclone forecasting operational system in Liaoning province

The tropical cyclones forecasting operational system in Liaoning province and its forecasting results in the year of 2005 were introduced based on MM5 in this paper.The background field and the boundary were created by T213L31 product.The initial field assimilated sounding data,the surface observations and satellite retrieval data,and Bogus TC were also set in the initial field.The system ran twice every day automatically.The post processing products were programmed the graph system of GrADs in order to display charts,and it was showed on meso-scale numerical forecasting web pages of Shenyang Regional Meteorological Center Local Area Network.The tropical cyclone forecast in the flood season in 2005 indicated that the system was suitable to the tropic cyclone route forecast and rainstorm forecast.