基于NorESM1-M模式的中国东北地区2050s玉米气候生产潜力预估

利用NorESM1-M模式资料驱动AEZ模型模拟了21世纪中叶东北地区春玉米在雨养条件下的气候生产潜力。结果表明：在RCP2.6情景下，东北区域热量资源较1981-2010年有所改善，年平均气温增加1.72℃，≥ 10℃积温增加359.6℃；降水整体呈现略增加趋势且南部多于北部，全区平均增多56.9 mm，蒸散量增加10.0 mm；具有最大气候生产潜力的区域在辽宁省东部；与基准年相比，辽宁单产平均每公顷增加1100 kg。在RCP8.5情景下，东北区域热量资源进一步改善，黑龙江、辽宁和吉林三省≥ 10℃积温分别增加652.7℃、636.3℃和683.9℃，降水总量较RCP2.6情景增加但空间分布差异较大，全区维持增产趋势，辽宁、吉林和黑龙江增产百分比分别为3.3%、8.1%和20.0%。

The study case of NorESM1-M on the estimation of spring maize climate potential productivity in northeast China in 2050s

Based on the climate scenarios materials outputted from the NorESM1-M model,the agro-ecological zones model was driven for analyzing the spring maize climate potential productivity in northeast China under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid-21st century.The results show that compared with the baseline period during 1981-2010,the heat condition is improved under RCP2.6 scenario with annual mean temperature and accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ increasing 1.72℃ and 359.6℃·d,respectively.The precipitation slightly shows an increasing trend with an averaged increase of 56.9 mm over the studied area and the trend is larger in the south than in the north,while evapotranspiration increases by 10.0 mm.Meanwhile,the area with the largest climate potential productivity is distributed in the east Liaoning.The yield per unit area in Liaoning increases by 1100 kg/ha or more relative to the baseline period.Under RCP8.5 scenario,the heat resource in northeast China is further improved.More specifically,the accumulated temperatures ≥ 10℃ in Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces increase by 652.7℃·d,636.3℃·d,and 683.9℃·d,respectively.In addition,compared with RCP2.6 scenario,the precipitation increases and demonstrates a large spatial variability and the production maintains an increasing trend and increases by 3.3%,8.1% and 20.0% in Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,respectively.