气象要素对大豆产量的影响分析

基于2001-2009年大豆田间试验观测数据，利用相关和通径分析揭示了大豆不同发育期的气象因子和生物因子对大豆产量的影响。结果表明：不同发育期的气象要素对大豆产量影响效果不同，其中开花-结荚期的平均气温与大豆产量相关性最大，为0.90，其次为播种-出苗期的降水，相关系数为0.71，结荚-鼓粒期的相对湿度和日照时数，分枝期的生物量和开花期的叶面积对大豆产量具有一定影响（r>0.5）。通径分析显示具有显著直接作用的因子是开花期的叶面积，不同发育期的气温与降水主要通过对生物量和叶面积的间接作用来影响大豆产量，结荚-鼓粒期的相对湿度和日照时数对产量具有较大的直接作用。耦合气象因子与生物因子建立大豆产量回归模拟方程，能够较好解释大豆产量（R²=0.99）。

The effect of meteorological factors on soybean yield

Based on the observational field data of soybean from 2001 to 2009,the effect of meteorological factors and biological factors in different soybean growth stages on soybean yield was analyzed using methods of a correlation analysis and a path analysis.The results show that the effect of meteorological factors in the different growth period on soybean yield differs.Among all factors,the correlation coefficient between the mean air temperature and soybean yield is highest and reaches 0.90 in the flowering and bearing pod stages,then that between precipitation and soybean yield is 0.71 in sowing date-emergence stage.Furthermore,relative humidity and sunshine duration in the bearing pod stages to seed-filling period,biomass in the branding stage and leaf area in the flowering stage could also affect the soybean yield （r ＞ 0.5）.The path analysis indicates that leaf area in the flowering stage is the main and direct influencing factor to soybean yield,while the greater effect of temperature and precipitation on the yield is produced by the indirect effect of biomass and leaf area.Relative humidity and sunshine duration in the bearing pod stages to seed-filling stage have large influence on soybean yield.A regression equation is established by coupling the meteorological factors and biological factors,which could simulate well soybean yield （R2 =0.99）.