气候变化对中国华北地区办公建筑供热制冷能耗的影响评估

以中国华北地区五大城市办公建筑为例，利用1961—2017年气象数据和TRNSYS软件模拟的供热制冷负荷数据，评估了气候变化背景下华北地区建筑供热制冷负荷的变化。在此基础上，对模拟负荷和气象要素进行多元线性逐步回归分析，揭示了影响建筑供热、制冷负荷的主要气象因子。结果表明：1961—2017年中国华北五大城市供热负荷均呈下降趋势，降幅为0.05（石家庄）—0.13 kWh·m^-2·（10 a）^-1（呼和浩特）；各城市制冷负荷的变化不同，仅呼和浩特为增多，增幅为0.04 kWh·m^-2·（10 a）^-1，其余城市制冷负荷无明显变化；从总负荷来看，各城市均呈下降趋势，降幅为0.05（太原）—0.10 kWh·m^-2·（10 a）^-1（呼和浩特）。由供热制冷负荷与气象要素的回归分析可知，冬季供热负荷主要受气温影响，五大城市的显著增温导致供热负荷减少；与此不同，夏季制冷负荷主要受气温、太阳辐射的共同影响，呼和浩特平均气温和太阳辐射均呈显著上升趋势，导致其制冷负荷显著增加。其他城市气温显著升高，而太阳辐射显著降低，二者的综合作用导致制冷负荷没有明显的变化趋势。总体来看，在气候变暖背景下，中国华北地区冬季供热负荷明显降低，而夏季制冷负荷并未明显增加，导致总负荷显著降低，气候变暖总体上对建筑节能有利。

Assessment on effects of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumptions of office buildings in the representative cities of North China

Variations of the heating, cooling energy consumptions for office buildings in the five cities of North China were analyzed under the background of climate warming based on the meteorological data during 1961-2017 and records of heating, cooling energy consumptions.In addition, the dominant meteorological factors affecting buildings' heating and cooling energy consumptions were determined using stepwise multiple linear regression between the simulated energy consumptions and meteorological factors.The results show that heating and total energy consumptions in all the selected five cities significantly decrease during 1961-2017, with the decreasing rates between 0.05 kWh·m^-2·(10 a)^-1 (Shijiazhuang) to 0.13 kWh·m^-2·(10 a)^-1 (Huhehot).By contrast, there are different variations tendencies in cooling energy consumptions in the five cities, with a significant increase in Huhehot (increasing 0.04 kWh·m^-2 per decade) and no obvious variations in other cities.There are obvious decreasing tendencies in the total energy consumptions for all the cities, with decreasing rate of 0.05 kWh·m^-2·(10 a)^-1 (Taiyuan) - 0.10 kWh·m^-2·(10 a)^-1 (Huhehot).The stepwise multiple linear regression indicates that temperature is the dominant climatic factor affecting building heating energy consumptions in all the 5 cities.The increase in temperature during the past decades leads to a decrease in heating energy consumptions.By contrast, cooling energy consumptions are affected by temperature and solar radiation.Cooling energy consumption significantly increases in Huhehot due to the rising of temperature and solar radiation.No obvious variation trends of cooling energy consumptions in other 4 cities are dominant as a result of the offset of temperature (increasing) and solar radiation (decreasing).In general, under the background of climate warming, heating energy consumptions obviously decrease and no apparent variations are found in cooling energy consumptions in North China, which is beneficial for improving building energy efficiency.