台风“苏力”灾害风险与防御行为效益评估

利用2013年台风“苏力”的监测资料、台风灾情资料、2000年后福建省台风灾害数据库资料和台风“苏力”灾害防御行为效益评估网络问卷调查资料，采用相似分析法的上下限区间估算法，预评估台风“苏力”造成的受灾人口和直接经济损失，并利用台风灾害风险区划方法，对台风“苏力”进行灾害风险区划。结果表明：台风“苏力”预评估结果与实际灾情相符，台风“苏力”灾害风险分布与实际灾情分布大部分一致，风险等级高的县市，实际灾情重，高风险区的大部县市直接经济损失均为1000万元以上。应用台风灾害防御行为效益评估三级指标体系，通过调查统计分析可知，指标体系中的各级各项指数均能较好地反映和评估政府主导、部门联动和公众参与的防御行为效益，政府主导在各类减灾行为中作用最大。

Study on disaster risk of typhoon Soulik and its prevention benefit assessment

Based on the meteorological dataset of typhoon Soulik，typhoon disaster data in Fujian province since 2000 and the network survey data of typhoon Soulik, pre-assessments of the loss of typhoon Soulik including affected population and direct economic losses were calculated using an estimation of upper and lower limits of a similar analysis method. Risk divisions of typhoon Soulik were carried out using a typhoon risk division method. The results indicate that pre-assessment of typhoon Soulik is consistent with the real disaster losses, and so are risk divisions. The higher risk grade is, the serious disaster loss is. The direct economic loss of most counties with high risk reaches over 10 million Yuan. According to the questionnaires with a 3-level index system of benefit assessment of typhoon prevention and mitigation behavior, all indexes could assess greatly action of the local government, the department and the public. Among them, the local government plays an important role for prevention of typhoon Soulik.