SRES A2 情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件变化特征

随全球变暖，应对高温热浪事件是未来现代化城市面临的难题之一。本文利用全球模式-HadAM3p提供的3组不同边界场和初始场驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS的输出结果，模拟未来情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件发生频率、强度及持续时间的变化趋势。结果表明：全球PRECIS对基准时段（1961-1990年）的高温热浪事件的发生的频率、强度和持续时间及对应的大气环流特征具有较强的模拟能力。相对于基准时段，未来情景下未来时段（2071-2100年）中国各地区的高温热浪的强度增加，发生频率增幅超过了100 %，且持续时间增加30 %以上。此外，观测资料和模拟结果均表明武汉和哈尔滨地区的高温热浪与500 hPa高度场的正距平密切相关。而未来情景下，武汉和哈尔滨地区500 hPa高度场的正距平呈增加趋势，表明这些地区未来可能面临危害更严重的高温热浪事件。

Characteristics of regional high temperature and heat wave events over China under SRES A2 scenario

With global warming, how to control high temperature and heat wave events will be one of the difficult problems that modern cities have to consider. An analysis of simulated distribution of the present (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) high temperature heat wave events by three runs from a regional model (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies, PRECIS) in China under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario was presented. The results indicate that PRECIS could simulate better the frequency, intensity and duration of the high temperature and heat wave events as well as corresponding atmospheric circulation for the basic period (1961-1990). Compared with those of the basic period, intensity of high temperature and heat wave events will rise, and increasing amplitude of its frequency will exceed 100% and its duration will increase by 30% or above. Also, observed and simulated results suggest that high temperature and heat wave events have a close relation to positive anomaly of 500 hPa geopotential height field over Wuhan and Harbin regions. Under future scenario, positive anomaly of 500 hPa geopotential height field will be in a increasing trend in the above two regions, and it suggests that it will probably be more serious high temperature and heat wave events in these regions.