北京地区玉米风灾损失定量评估模型研究

风灾是北京地区玉米减产的一个重要因素,是影响玉米产量最常见的一种气象灾害,严重的风灾可造成玉米绝收。为实现对玉米风灾造成损失的定量评估,利用收集到的历史上出现的玉米风灾及产量损失数据,结合自动气象站观测资料,分析了风灾发生过程中对玉米产量损失影响显著的气象因子,最终确定选取玉米受灾过程中的最大风速的最大值、持续时间内的最大风速的平均值、最大风速持续时间和过程降水量4个气象因子,并考虑到玉米不同生育期抗风能力的不同,增加了玉米生育期影响因子,利用这5个要素,运用统计学方法建立了北京地区玉米风灾损失定量评估统计模型。通过对样本数据的拟合及剩余样本的检验,建立的定量损失评估模型具有一定的准确性和实用性,可为政策性农业保险的定损,以及生产部门确定风灾损失及保险公司理赔提供科学依据。

Research on Corn Quantitative Assessment Model of Wind Damage Loss in Beijing

Wind damage is a key factor causing corn yield reduction in Beijing, and also a usual meteorological disaster for corn yield. Severe wind damage can cause complete loss in harvest. In order to quantitatively estimate the corn wind damage loss, the paper analyzed the four meteorological factors of corn yield reduction, including the maximum, average and duration of maximum wind speed, and the precipitation, using the corn wind damage data, yield loss data and automatic weather station observational data. In addition, considering the different anti-wind abilities at different growth stages, the impact factor in corn growth period was added into the model. The loss quantitative assessment model was set up with the five factors above by using statistic method. By evaluating the samples and testifying the rest samples, it is showed that the assessment model is accurate and practicability. It can be used for providing scientific basis of assessing damage loss in policy oriented agricultural insurance, assurance company, and producing departments.